Karaka Million 2yo Runner by Runner Preview and Teds Tips

This is the richest race for the 2yos in New Zealand earning some nice money for the winning connections. The winning jockey will earn $400.00 for every second he rides in the race. The winning trainer will earn $800.00 for every second he watches and the winning owners just over $8000.00 for every second they watch.

The barrier draw yesterday has had a major influence on the runners and how this race may now play out. Without doubt the big winner from the draws was the horse that has now come into favourite in Whiskey Neat. With the two gate he can either lead or trail and if there a lot of early speed pop into the trail. The former favourite and now second favourite Probabeel is now more than likely be taken back from the outside gate and as such going to end up further back in the field than if she had drawn better.

The two inside gates will go forward to make use of them plus they are both forward runners anyway. Beauty Diva has blistering early speed and from gate six could she zoom over and look to take the lead. If so, then will Leith Innes try and keep her out on Whiskey Neat or take a sit behind Beauty Diva. Both Louis Luck and Challa are drawn handily at four and five are also both likely to go forward which means there could well be plenty of early pressure in the race as they look for positions and if that pressure is sustained throughout then something back in the field can come over the top of the leaders which is what Probabeel will be looking to do.

Unlike last year when the race looked pretty easy to work out with Avantage drawing nicely at gate five and the race going to plan for her, this year’s race is a bit of a conundrum unless you think Whiskey Neat is unbeatable from the draw. In his two wins he has had it pretty soft in front without any pressure but I feel he won’t get that luxury on Saturday. He did wobble about under pressure over the closing stages of that win here last start and I did see him run off at the Te Aroha trials when going right handed before his debut. They have brought him up here a couple of times for gallops to help him but if he does come under pressure early I do wonder how he will react. He could also bolt in but I have enough concern that he could get rolled.

Opie has had the choice of five of the Te Akau horses as I mentioned and has chosen the filly with 54.5kgs and for Opie to get down to ride at that weight then he must feel pretty confident she can take the race out and give him and Jamie Richards a remarkable run of three wins in a row in the race. He has had to make the same decision over mounts the last two years and chosen correctly and that will be good enough for me on Saturday. I think this is a smart filly and will more than likely make a better 3yo but still capable of taking the race out. If Opie can go back, get some cover and then have her moving into the race turning in she can then sustain a strong run to the line and get up over them in the final meters.

 

1   12   Aotea Lad        (12)     56.5kgs

James McDonald

Trainer: Jamie Richards

2g Savabeel – Corsage

Purchase Price $200,000   Two starts: Won the G2 Wakefield Challenge Stakes at Trentham over 1100m on debut last month. Finished second behind Whiskey Neat here on New Years Day in the G3 Eclipse Stakes with Exuberant third. Got back that day before running home strongly. Drawn out and likely pattern again. Looks a nice type with James Mac to ride and with the right run hard to beat. Visor blinkers go on. $7.00FF

2   11   Whiskey Neat   (2)  56.5kgs

Leith Innes

Trainer: Tony Pike

2g Denman – Ouija

Purchase Price   $220,000 Two starts: Unbeaten. The first of them was at Otaki when winning by ten lengths creating a big impression and following that with a win at Ellerslie on New Years Day in the Eclipse Stakes beating Aotea Lad and Exuberant. Led in both starts and had drawn the best of the better backed runners in gate to. Will go forward and lead or trail and if he does things correctly right handed is right in this. $2.70FF

3   12   Neptune’s Spear (11) 56.5kgs

Johnathan Parkes

Trainer: Liam Birchley

2c Super Easy – Hestolemyroses

Purchase Price $140,000    Two starts: Australian trained galloper who won on debut at Doomben in November over 1050m. Second start, also at Doomben earlier this month over 1110m he finished second beaten three and a quarter lengths. Not knowing the Australian form around this horse it is difficult how to rate him against the NZ runners. Trainer has won the race twice previously so knows what is required to win.  $21.00FF

4   13    Exuberant    (15)      56.5kgs

Jason Waddell

2c  Savabeel  –  Merrily

Trainer: Stephen Marsh

Purchase Price  $160,000 Two starts:  Won the Listed Wellesley Stakes over 1000m at Trentham late October beating Last Sight and Appellant. Nearly ten weeks later he lined up in the G3 Eclipse Stakes at Ellerslie on New Years Day finishing a good third behind Whiskey Neat and Aotea Lad. He will be improved for  that run but the disastrous draw makes it very difficult for him now. Will need luck,  probably go back and look to run on.  $15.00FF

5   12   Yourdeel    (13)    56.5kgs

Matt Cameron

2g  Dundeel  –  Miss Zapper

Trainer:   Jamie Richards

Purchase price   $100,000  Two Starts:  Won easily on debut at Te Rapa  last month by over five lengths beating Flaunting. Then lined up at Ellerslie two weeks ago and just went down to stablemate Probabeel in the last two strides, beaten a head after sitting outside the leader. An awkward draw to overcome and not sure how they will ride him from out there. Has to be one of the main dangers in the race with the right run.   $13.00FF

6   1   Louis Luck    (4)    56.5kgs

Shafiq Rusof

2g  Dissident  –  My Option

Trainer:   Jamie Richards

One start:  Won well on debut at Trentham  two weeks ago beating The Fugitive who is held in some regard by a length over 1200m in 1:08:61. Has a very good draw to operate with. Shared the pace on the inner in that Trentham win so most likely will be sent forward again to make use of the draw. He didn’t shirk the task in that debut win and if able to back up quickly can go well again.   $12.00FF

7 Challa (5)  56.5kgs    

Johnathan Riddell

2g  Dissident  –  Are There Any

Trainer:   Jamie Richards

Purchase Price   $100,000   Four starts: Three seconds in a row, all at Riccarton, with the third start behind Miss Federer in the Listed Welcome Stakes in November. His fourth start was  at Ellerslie two weeks ago when finishing seventh of eight some seven lengths behind Probabeel and Yourdeel. He had the run of the race in the trail but found little in the run home. Hard to see him turning the tables on those two even with a better draw. Look elsewhere. Blinkers go on.  $91.00FF

8   42×1   Tappy’s One   (7)    56.5kgs

Samantha Collett

2g  Proisir  –  Tappy Lee

Trainer:  Stephen McKee

Purchase Price  $20,000  Three starts: Finished fourth at Counties over 800m behind Beauty Diva in late September and followed that up with a second behind Last Sight at Ruakaka early October. Freshened up he came out at Tauranga eight days ago and won by two lengths. Backing up quickly here but trainer has won the race previously. Not a bad draw to operate from, likely to settle about fifth or sixth but this is a big step up for him and looks held.  $51.00FF

9   33   Blackrocksdetox    (3)   56.5kgs

2g  Rip Van Winkle  –  Dominique

Vinnie Colgan

Trainer:  Bruce Wallace  &  Allan   Peard

Purchase Price  $26,000            Two starts:  Finished third in both starts, the first at Counties in the Listed Splice Construction Stakes over 1100m behind Bavella. Start two was at Ellerslie on Boxing Day behind Appellant on a wet track that day running on strongly from last over the 1100m. In both starts he has been slow away from the outside gate of seven.  He has drawn beautifully in gate three but if slow away will get back in a very awkward position and make it difficult.  $51.00FF

10   331  Appellant    (9)     54.5kgs

Tommy Berry

2f  Showcasing  –  Royal Appellant

Trainer:  Stephen Marsh

Purchase Price   $30,000 Three starts:  Finished third on debut at Counties in September over 800m behind Beauty Diva when finishing strongly. Then came from last at Trentham to finish third behind Exuberant in the Listed Wellesley Stakes over 1000m. Came to Ellerslie on Boxing Day to win over 1200m on the wet track. I think there is upside to this filly and from gate nine can settle about sixth and look to finish strongly. Good chance at nice odds. Side winkers on.  $21.00FF

11   211  Probabeel   (16)    54.5kgs

Opie Bosson

2f   Savabeel  –  Far Fetched

Trainer: Jamie Richards

Purchase Price  $380,000  Three starts:  Just beaten on debut at Te Rapa over 1000m she won her next two starts, both at Ellerslie .In the first she got back before sweeping by to win by four and a half length over 1100m. Two weeks ago she got back on the inner before finishing widest and getting up the last couple of strides. Opie had the choice of five and is wasting hard to ride this one. He and the trainer are looking for a three peat. Horror draw but is smart. Visor blinkers on. $3.70FF

12   154  Beauty Diva  (6)   54.5kgs

Winona Costin

2f  Showcasing  –  Ketchme

Trainer:  Clinton Isdale

Purchase Price  $11,000 Three starts:  She won impressively on debut at Counties over 800m showing plenty of speed beating First Rock and Appellant. She then finished fifth in the Wellesley Stakes at Trentham over 1000m battling the last part. At Ellerslie on Boxing Day she finished fourth but some thirteen lengths behind Appellant. Has a handy draw and plenty of speed to make use of it but probably to be found wanting over the closing stages on last two runs.  $101.00FF

13   24   Aalaalune   (10)   54.5kgs

2f  Reliable Man  –  Viva Girl

Trainer:  Jacob McKay

Purchase Price  $230,000 Two starts:  She finished second on debut in the Listed Splice Construction Stakes at Counties late November behind Bavella and then lined up at Ellerslie in the G3 Eclipse Stakes and ran home nicely to finish fourth behind Whiskey Neat, Aotea Lad and Exuberant. It was a tidy enough run to suggest with the right run she could get some of it and is not without a show.  Side winkers go on.   $35.00FF

14   21   Flaunting    (1)      54.5kgs

Sam Spratt

2f  Showcasing –  Acapela

Trainer:  David Greene

Purchase Price $40,000  Two starts: She finished second on debut at Te Rapa albeit just over five lengths behind Yourdeel last month and then went to Matamata where she won over 1200m after getting the run of the race in the trail popping out at the 300m and winning by three quarters of a length. This is a big step up but does have the coveted one draw, so successful in the past in this race. That is a big help and likely to take advantage of it but likely to find a few better here.  $35.00FF

15   1  Rainbow Dash   (8)   54.5kgs

2f  Showcasing  –  Sarsourti

Trainer:  Jenna  Mahoney

Purchase Price  $14,000 One start:  This filly made her debut at Matamata two and a half weeks ago and won really nicely after sitting outside the leader and coming away in the straight to win by a length and a quarter beating a nice horse in Minnallines. She does need a scratching to get a start but if she did she could be a worth a gold coin or two at big odds.  $51.00FF

16   2  Qiji Swordsman   (14)   56.5kgs

2g  Shamexpress  –  Flowing

Trainer:  Nigel Tiley

Purchase Price  $40,000  One start:  Finished second on debut behind Tappy’s Star at Tauranga and didn’t get all favours that day when in tight quarters at the 400m. When out and with room ran on strongly two lengths behind the winner. Second on the ballot and probably not going to get a start.

SELECTIONS:

11 PROBABEEL

10 APPELLANT

12 AOTEA LAD

2 WHISKEY NEAT

Good luck.

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